🔗 Share this article

Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's positions."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."